It wasn’t quite the dominating performance of Olympics’ past. Of the seven relays contested, the United States won three, Australia won two, and China and Great Britain won the others. The Americans won just one individual event on the men’s side that was dominated by Europeans. The American women won four individual events, tying the Australians.

The United States’ eight gold medals in the pool was the lowest since the team won the exact number in Seoul 1988. For the Americans, the alarm-bells don’t necessarily need to be sounded. France’s Leon Marchand won four individual golds in Paris, while Canada’s Summer McIntosh won three - both of them swim in the United States for American coaches. Ireland’s Mona Mc Sharry and Canada’s Josh Liendo have trained in the American college system and won their first Olympic medals.

It’s not that the Americans are getting worse - the rest of the world is catching up.

For decades, Australia has been the United States’s chief rival in the sport of swimming. History remembers Ian Thorpe running down Gary Hall, Jr. on the final 50m of the 4x100m freestyle at the Sydney 2000 Olympics, followed by Misty Hyman upsetting world record holder Susie O’Neill in the 200m butterfly final a few days later as some of the best moments in Olympic history.

A Paradigm Shift

In 2017, after two straight disappointing Olympic showings in London 2012 and Rio 2016, Swimming Australia National Head Coach Jacco Verhaeren made a key shift in the selection process for major international events, moving the selection trials closer to the major event.

Former U.S. national team head coach Frank Busch was instrumental in helping implement this shift in Swimming Australia. After the United States won 32 gold medals across two Olympics to Australia’s four, a change was needed for the green and gold.

The strategic four-year plan also reduced the number of High Performance Centers from 14 to nine, increasing the standard of the daily performance environment for the athletes and coaches.

This process was first implemented in 2018 for the Commonwealth Games, which Australia hosted on the Gold Coast. The real test came later in the year at the Pan Pacific Championships in Tokyo. There, the Australians were set to take on the Americans in the Olympic city of Tokyo, as well as the best teams from Japan and Canada.

Although the meet was shorter than an Olympics or World Championships - heats and finals spread over five days instead of an additional semi-final round that stretched the Olympic program to eight days, Australia swept the women’s relays in Tokyo, as well as the Olympic mixed medley relay.

It was a promising sign for the Australian team that had only won two relays at the previous two Olympic cycles.

By the time the Tokyo Olympics came around in July 2021, Swimming Australia had perhaps its most formidable Olympic team since Beijing 2008. Emma McKeon, Kaylee McKeown and Ariarne Titmus each won two individual gold medals, while Zac Stubblety-Cook was the lone gold medalist for the men. The nine gold medals the team won in Tokyo was the most since the team won eight at a home Games in Melbourne 1956.

The process worked, and the momentum continued into the next three years.

At the 2023 World Aquatics Championships in Fukuoka, Australia beat the United States in gold medals with 13 to the Americans’ nine. It was the first time the Americans did not win the gold medal count at a Worlds or Olympics since the 2001 World Championships, also in Fukuoka.

That set up an exciting matchup in the pool in Paris.

Kaylee McKeown again won both the 100m and 200m backstroke in Paris, while teammate Ariarne Titmus defended the 400m freestyle, and Mollie O’Callaghan won the 200m freestyle.

For the Americans, Torri Huske won her first individual gold in the 100m butterfly, while Bobby Finke defended his 1500m freestyle from Tokyo 2020 and training partner Katie Ledecky won the 800m for the fourth time, and defended her 1500m gold as well. 

The Americans narrowly beat the Australians in the gold medal count 8 - 7, thanks to two on the last day. But the Australians have certainly closed the gap, thanks to the cultural shift that started in 2017.

“It’s been interesting seeing that progression,” 200m breaststroke Olympic silver medalist Zac Stubblety-Cook said after Paris. Stubblety-Cook made his senior debut at the 2018 Commonwealth Games when he was 19.

“We’ve been on the road for six weeks. I think it’s great in you don’t lose sight or focus in what you are training for. I think sometimes that was the reflection of the 16-week prep.

“You had a whole prep where you could go up and down but the caveat is you would lose sight and focus. I’ve seen the culture of the Australian swim team progress in the last five years. When I came on the team, there were a few old guards and personalities that didn’t necessarily help that culture. Now that they’ve shifted and there’s a younger crop and they’re buying into the culture, it’s really cool to see the progression of that.”

Although the gold medal count wasn’t on the minds of the American and Australian swimmers in the pool, the medal table was celebrated by the fans back home.

“I knew Bobby (Finke) had tied it (with his 1500m gold medal),” Gretchen Walsh said. “Bobby’s swim was electric. That was amazing, and that got my energy going for the (4x100m medley) relay, so I was pumped to assert the lead and get the gold.”

With Paris 2024 in the rearview, the immediate attention shifts to next year’s World Aquatics Championships in Singapore, with the end goal being the 2028 Olympic Games in Los Angeles.

"I still feel like we have the target on our back that we're the team to beat,” 100m butterfly world record holder Caeleb Dressel said. “That won't change - ever. So I don't think the goals need to change just because the world's getting faster. We want to be the most dominant team, and we were (at) these Olympic Games. It's just there's other countries that are getting faster and it's great for the sport. It makes for faster and more exciting swimming."

The future is bright

The United States - Australia rivalry is not going to fizzle anytime soon. Although the rest of the world is catching up, the two nations remain the standard for excellence. At last year’s World Junior Swimming Championships, the United States won five of the eight relays, with Australia winning the other three.

Moving forward, the next two Olympics will be held in the United States in 2028 and Australia in 2032.

LA 2028 will mark the first major long course meet held in the United States since Atlanta 1996, with many of the veteran American swimmers hoping to hang on for one more Olympic cycle for a chance to swim in a home Olympics. Brisbane 2032 will mark the first major meet held in Australia since the World Championships were in Melbourne in 2007.

"Thinking about an LA Olympic Games, that is so appealing, especially when you see how the French fans were treating their French athletes here,” 100m backstroke bronze medalist Ryan Murphy said after the 4x100m medley in Paris. “Just trying to predict what that would be like in LA with a venue twice the size. That's something that's really, really appealing.”

A home Olympics should certainly lift the Americans to more success in southern California in four years time. The 2024 Olympic team had 22 rookies out of the 46 total members, who will look to use that experience to success in Los Angeles.

“We have a lot of young kids too that we are happy and proud of,” 100m breaststroke silver medalist Nic Fink said. “Half the team was Olympic rookies for the guys. I feel like that’s a big margin. We are excited for them. Those guys are getting a taste for it now and they are going to be hunting for golds, for sure.”

Even if Brisbane 2032 is eight years away, this year’s Australia team is building excitement for the team that will compete in a home Olympics.

“I think when you look ahead to Brisbane, getting results like this as a team is inspiring the next ones coming through,” Olympic gold medalist Emma McKeon said, who just announced her retirement from swimming after four Olympic trips. “I guess showing them what they can do and encouraging them to want to be a part of it as well. I think that’s really exciting in looking forward to Brisbane.”