How many triple crowns will be realised at the Swimming World Cup in Toronto? And who could possibly spoil the party?
Women’s 400m freestyle - Lani Pallister
Top challenger: Erika Fairweather, New Zealand
Right off the bat, the first triple crown in play is for Australia’s Lani Pallister in the first event of the meet. Pallister is having a career year, swimming to silver in the race of the decade thus far in the 800m freestyle at the World Championships. Pallister is inching closer to the world record held by Summer McIntosh (3:50.25) after her 3:52 in Westmont last week, five seconds ahead of New Zealand’s Erika Fairweather.
It’s going to take a lot to take down Pallister as she demonstrating the promise she showed as a junior in 2019.
Women’s 50m backstroke - Kaylee McKeown
Top challenger: Gretchen Walsh, Katharine Berkoff, United States
Perhaps the greatest backstroker in history, Kaylee McKeown of Australia, will face a tough challenge in her final 50m backstroke of the tour from the American duo of Katharine Berkoff and Gretchen Walsh.
McKeown has been undefeated in the 50m backstroke for the last two weeks, but faced stiff competition from the Americans in Westmont last week, squeezing out the win by 0.02 over Walsh. Berkoff, the World champion from July, and Walsh, the best underwater kicker in the world at the moment, have the speed to take down McKeown - the key is to match McKeown’s closing speed, which has made her undefeated in Olympic finals.
Men’s 200m backstroke - Hubert Kos
Top challenger: Thomas Ceccon, Italy
Olympic and World champion Hubert Kos has been on a tear this World Cup stop, winning six of the possible six backstroke finals in Carmel and Westmont. Now in week three, he takes his winning streak to Toronto, where a seventh win is within reach for him. After facing his toughest challenge in week one from training partner Leon Marchand, he should be clear sailing to win number seven and triple crown number one in his best event, the 200m backstroke.
Italy’s Thomas Ceccon was within a second of Kos in Westmont last week, but Kos is on another level at the moment as he takes aim at Mitch Larkin’s 1:45.63 world record from 2015 and the overall World Cup crown.
Women’s 200m butterfly - Regan Smith
Top challenger: Ellen Walshe, Ireland
The pursuit for the third ever sub-2:00 200m butterfly continues for American Regan Smith as she has hardly been challenged for two weeks in this event, facing perhaps her biggest challenge in week one from fellow Olympian Alex Shackell in her home pool.
Ireland’s Ellen Walshe has a season best of 2:04, and will have her hands full if she is to bust the crown, while Smith has one more opportunity to break 2:00 to join a club of only two swimmers - Olympic champs Summer McIntosh and Mireia Belmonte.
Men’s 100m butterfly - Noe Ponti
Top challenger: Ilya Kharun, Canada
Switzerland’s Noe Ponti and Canada’s Ilya Kharun have been going back and forth the last two weeks in the sprint butterfly events, with Ponti staying undefeated in the 100m and Kharun in the 50m.
Both seem to be in the prime of their careers as they were both on the podium in this event at the World Championships in August. Ponti’s strength has been in his turns, while Kharun’s has been his start. Add in South Africa’s Chad Le Clos and Canada’s Joshua Liendo, and this will be a marquee event on Thursday night.
Women’s 200m breaststroke - Kate Douglass
Top challenger: Rebecca Meder, South Africa
American Kate Douglass has not lost a 200m breaststroke race since February 2024 and has the five fastest times in history, and has the fastest time in the world this year by nearly four seconds. All the math is leading to a third straight win for Douglass, who has put on a masterclass in the 200m breaststroke the last two weeks.
South Africa’s Rebecca Meder and fellow American Alex Walsh have both been as fast as 2:18 this year, but will need to be about five seconds faster to take down Douglass, who is showing no signs of slowing down as she chases her second straight overall World Cup crown.
Women’s 50m freestyle - Kasia Wasick
Top challenger: Alexandria Perkins, Australia
Poland’s Kasia Wasick has been on a tear in the 50m freestyle for two weeks, always finding a way to get her hand to the wall first, even by the slimmest of margins. Wasick’s discipline has kept her on top of the world rankings at age 33, as her biggest challenger will be 25-year-old upstart Alexandria Perkins of Australia.
Perkins has been as quick as 23.45 this year compared to Wasick’s 23.29. Perkins has found new life to her career, making her first individual international podium this summer at the Worlds in the 50m and 100m butterfly.
Women’s 100m IM - Gretchen Walsh
Top challenger: Roos Van Otterdijk, Belgium
Gretchen Walsh’s power and strength has been on display for two weeks in the 100m IM, the event she holds the six fastest times in history. Ironically, the achilles heel for her the last two weeks has been her freestyle, where Kate Douglass has unsuccessfully nearly run her down on the last 25 meters.
Now in week three, Walsh will be racing solo, opening the door for an uncontested triple crown without Douglass in the field. If there is a challenger though, look no further than Belgium’s Roos VanOtterdijk, who is having a career year after she became the ninth woman ever to swim 55 seconds in the 100m butterfly in long course, and won Belgium’s first World Championships medal in swimming since 1998.
Men’s 100m IM - Shaine Casas
Top challenger: Noe Ponti
American Shaine Casas nearly didn’t make it to this point last week in Westmont when he almost missed the final entirely. Casas has learned his lesson as he is swimming better than ever this year, showing the promises he showed in late 2019.
The biggest challenge will be from Switzerland’s Noe Ponti, who like the aforementioned Douglass, has run out of room on the freestyle leg each of the last two weeks to just miss out-touching Casas. Will that trend continue one more week or will Ponti’s speed prevail? His weakness has been his back and breast, which Casas has taken advantage of the last two weeks.
Men’s 50m backstroke - Hubert Kos
Top challenger: Ralf Tribuntsov
It’s hard to believe Kos is undefeated in a 50m event, but he’s been able to stay on top for two straight weeks. Across his three triple crown potentials, this is Kos’s toughest one, with former University of Southern California swimmers Ralf Tribuntsov and Dylan Carter hot on his heels.
Add in Poland’s Kacper Stokowski, who was second to Kos last week in Westmont, and this could potentially be a crown busting event.
Women’s 200m freestyle - Mollie O’Callaghan
Top challenger: Lani Pallister, Australia
One of the most impressive swims of the entire tour came last week in Westmont when Australia’s Mollie O’Callaghan became the first woman to swim sub-1:50 in the 200m freestyle, blasting the world record to sit at 1:49.77. O’Callaghan, the winner of the last World and Olympic title in this event, is sitting alone in this event, with her biggest challenge expected to come from teammate Lani Pallister.
O’Callaghan’s speed will perhaps be too much for Pallister to keep up with, as O’Callaghan is currently on a tear with no signs of stopping.
Men’s 200m IM - Shaine Casas
Top challenger: Finlay Knox, Canada
Casas faced his toughest challenge of the tour by beating Leon Marchand in week one. Now he has an opportunity to break Marchand’s world record of 1:48.88 from last year. If there is anyone to take down Casas, look for the Canadian crowd to get behind 2024 World champ Finlay Knox.
Knox has been a consistent force on the world scene since he was a junior in 2019, although his season best sits at 1:52.12 this year, while Casas was 1:49 two weeks ago. At this point, it’s Casas’s race to lose. The only question that remains is if he can break the world record.
Women’s 100m backstroke - Regan Smith
Top challenger: Kaylee McKeown, Australia
Smith has been on fire for two weeks, scoring wins over the Olympic champion for the first time since 2019 as she tied her world record last week at 54.02. Smith seemed surprised last week when she tied her own mark, so does that mean that a 53 is in the works?
McKeown, who hasn’t broken 55 seconds yet this tour, is lurking in the shadows however. McKeown is going for a triple crown in the 200m backstroke, as her aerobic capacity is still top notch, while her speed isn’t up to what it has been in the past. Will this week be different for her? Or will Smith take the $10K?
Women’s 50m butterfly - Gretchen Walsh
Top challenger: Alexandria Perkins, Australia
Can any force in the world stop Gretchen Walsh right now? In Carmel two weeks ago, she swam 23.72 to break the world record for the third time in her career. If she swims faster than 24.38, she will hold the ten fastest times in history. The second fastest time in the world this year - 24.60 by Alexandria Perkins is a world away from Walsh. The field will be on world record watch as she looks to collect a $10,000 triple crown bonus and a $10,000 world record bonus.
Women’s 100m breaststroke - Kate Douglass
Top challenger: Mona Mc Sharry, Ireland
The 100m breaststroke has become a new event for American Kate Douglass. As she has dominated the 200m breaststroke as of late, she has taken on the 100m and moved to number six on the all-time list. Douglass is just a half second away from the world record at 1:02.36 as she looks to stay undefeated in Toronto after her 1:02.90 in Carmel.
Her biggest challenge will likely be from Ireland’s Mona Mc Sharry, who won the Olympic bronze medal in Paris last summer, and won the 50m breaststroke last week in Westmont. Mc Sharry has yet to break 1:04 this year, but has the racing pedigree to get it done.
Men’s 200m butterfly - Ilya Kharun
Top challenger: Noe Ponti, Switzerland
Canada’s Ilya Kharun survived a scare from Switzerland’s Noe Ponti last week in the 200m when Ponti held the lead over Kharun for 150 meters. Now, Kharun heads to his home pool where the Canadian fans will be making their voices heard.
It’s hard to envision Kharun losing in this scenario as he has not skipped a beat this autumn, rebounding from a somewhat disappointing showing in Singapore when he was fourth in this event after winning Olympic bronze the summer prior. If Ponti chooses to swim this again, he will likely swim it the same way, pressing the pace on the front half to cause everyone else to react. Kharun will be ready for that, and the race will be on in one of the hardest races on the program.
Men’s 100m freestyle - Jack Alexy
Top challenger: Chris Guiliano, United States
Before Americans Jack Alexy and Chris Guiliano team up for relays next summer and beyond, they will battle one more time in Toronto in the SCM 100m freestyle. Alexy has had the upper hand two weeks in a row with Guiliano in second both times. Alexy hasn’t lost to Guiliano head to head since the 2024 Olympic Trials, as Alexy is coming off a career summer that saw him swim the second fastest relay split in history.
Both men will be key leaders for the United States in the lead-up to a home Olympics in 2028, and will bring out the best in each other one more time this World Cup circuit.
Women’s 100m butterfly - Gretchen Walsh
Top challenger: Alexandria Perkins, Australia
Similar to the aforementioned 50m butterfly, American Gretchen Walsh has transformed what was thought to be possible in the 100m butterfly. The first time she ever swam the event in short course meters, she broke the world record, and brought it from a 54.05 to a 52.71. She has yet to break 53 seconds this tour, but her dominance has shown.
Each of the podiums has mirrored what it was at the World Championships in July, with Australia’s Alexandria Perkins and Belgium’s Roos Vanotterdijk on the dais with Walsh, but Perkins and VanOtterdijk have been over a second slower than Walsh the last two weeks, and these are the two best in the world. This will be Walsh’s last event in her pursuit for the overall crown as she will want to go out on a high note in Toronto.
Men’s 50m butterfly - Ilya Kharun
Top challenger: Noe Ponti, Switzerland
Perhaps the race of the entire meet for the men’s programme, Canada will be cheering for Kharun to win a third straight 50m butterfly title while also chasing Ponti’s world record of 21.32 from last year. Kharun became the first swimmer to beat Ponti head to head in this race in short course since 2022, and did it again the following week. Is the third time the charm? Or will Ponti get seething revenge in the final stop in front of Kharun’s adoring fans?
Women’s 200m backstroke - Kaylee McKeown
Top challenger: Regan Smith, United States
Last week, McKeown and Smith had one of the races of the World Cup when they both got under the existing world record - McKeown getting the touch at 1:57.87 to Smith’s 1:57.91. Smith lost the world record to her name and will look to exact revenge on her biggest rival in the final time they will meet until August 2026.
Smith and McKeown are two of the best to ever swim backstroke, and have transformed the stroke since they were juniors in 2017. Between them, they have won nearly all the World and Olympic titles since 2020 and also hold five of the six existing backstroke world records in short course and long course.
Fans should not take these two racing for granted as they will look to put on a show one final time in 2025.
Men’s 100m backstroke - Hubert Kos
Top challenger: Shaine Casas, United States
One of the intriguing matchups will be between training partners Hubert Kos and Shaine Casas. After Kos won the first two 100m backstroke finals over Olympic champ Thomas Ceccon, Casas decided to give the 100m backstroke another try.
The 100m backstroke is the event where Casas first made a name for himself in 2019, and the event where he held the World Cup record that Kos broke last week. Casas has shied away from this event in recent years, but is ready to give it another shot with the opportunity to deny Kos’s triple crown.
Men’s 200m breaststroke - Caspar Corbeau
Top challenger: Shin Ohashi, Japan
Olympic bronze medallist Caspar Corbeau of the Netherlands has been a force in the men’s breaststroke events this month, taking down the reigning Olympic champion Leon Marchand in Carmel and the reigning World Short Course champ Carles Coll Marti in Westmont last week.
Corbeau’s top remaining challenger appears to be the Japanese duo of 16-year-old Shin Ohashi and 28-year-old Ippei Watanabe. Ohashi and Watanabe both won silver medals this summer internationally, with Watanabe returning to the World Championships podium and Ohashi making a big splash at the World Juniors.
Neither of them however have gone under 2:03 this month, while Corbeau went 2:01 in both his wins in the United States.
Women’s 100m freestyle - Kate Douglass
Top challenger: Mollie O’Callaghan, Australia
Kate Douglass set the world record last week in the 100m freestyle in a huge matchup with 200m world record holder Mollie O’Callaghan to become the first American woman to hold the world record in the blue ribbon event since Jenny Thompson set the long course mark in 1992.
Does Douglass have what it takes to become the first woman to break 50 seconds? As the race for the overall World Cup winner between Douglass and Gretchen Walsh takes shape, a world record in the 100m freestyle would certainly be the icing on the cake to what would be a second straight overall win for Douglass.
O’Callaghan, the World champ from 2023, will need to put together the race of her life if she is to beat Douglass, but she has stepped up on the biggest stage before, so it will certainly be an intriguing race on Saturday night.
Men’s 200m freestyle - Luke Hobson
Top challenger: Chris Guiliano, United States
American Luke Hobson has become the man for the United States in this event since he first won the national title in 2023. Since then, he was a stroke away from winning the Olympic gold in Paris and was the silver medalist in Singapore. Additionally, he took down the vaunted Paul Biedermann short course world record from 2009 last year at the World Short Course Championships.
This season, Hobson has continued his winning ways of mastering the 200m freestyle and has dragged Chris Guiliano along with him. Olympic silver medalist Matthew Richards will also be a factor in the tactical race, but Hobson and Guiliano have been the class of the field this month, sitting at the top of the world rankings.
Women’s 200m IM - Alex Walsh
Top challenger: Abbie Wood, Great Britain
American Alex Walsh quietly won the first two 200m IMs as she goes for the triple crown this week in Toronto. Walsh, the older sister of the aforementioned Gretchen, has the top time in the world this year 2:04.44, just ahead of Great Britain’s Abbie Wood at 2:05.14.
Walsh’s strengths lie in her backstroke and breaststroke, while Wood’s will be in the breast and free. Walsh has held her own the first two weeks and is in a good position for her third straight.
Women’s 800m freestyle - Lani Pallister
Top challenger: Erika Fairweather, New Zealand
Australia’s Lani Pallister made a serious threat to Katie Ledecky’s 1500m world record from 2022 last week in Westmont when she was under world record pace in the first half of the race. Pallister has the speed and endurance to virtually hang with Ledecky, and it would certainly cause headlines if she can take down the American’s world record.
New Zealand’s Erika Fairweather will be there if Pallister falters on her race plan, but it looks like this will be a race between Pallister and the clock.