Last year may have been somewhat of a disappointment for the Chinese swim team with only one gold medal at the World Aquatics Championships in Budapest in the women’s 200m freestyle by virtue of Yang Junxuan. The team won four additional bronze medals with Tang Muhan joining Yang on the 200m freestyle podium as well as Zhang Yufei winning all three bronze medals in the butterfly events.

None of the men’s swimmers from China won a medal in Budapest, with rising star Pan Zhanle as the highest finisher, swimming to fourth in the men’s 100m freestyle. With the 2023 Worlds quickly approaching, the Chinese team looks to be much stronger, while a lot of its athletes look to improve off of a disappointing season last year.

Pan Zhanle’s chances at a medal in Fukuoka? High. Best chance? 100m freestyle.

With the countdown to Fukuoka, the new face of Chinese swimming appears to be Pan Zhanle, who at age 18, is the fastest man in the world in 2023 in both the 100m and 200m freestyle. With all the attention on Romania’s David Popovici and his pursuit of the 100m freestyle world record, Pan was lost in the shuffle last year when he was fourth in the 100m freestyle at 47.79 after tying the national record of 47.65 in the semifinals.

Earlier this year, Pan scorched a 47.22 at Chinese Nationals, the first time the meet was held with fans since the 2020 COVID pandemic broke out, and now has the number one time in the world as well as tenth all-time. That speed was extended across to the 200m freestyle, where he also swam a world-leading time of 1:44.65, which puts him 13th on the all-time list.

Pan’s lone event in Budapest last year was the 100m freestyle, and he advanced all the way to the final so he has the experience on his side. The question is how legitimate is his 200m freestyle? And can he show success when all eyes are on him? Clearly he has shown the 1:44 speed, it is just a matter of replicating it across three rounds in Fukuoka against the likes of heavy favourites Popovici, Hwang Sunwoo, and Tom Dean. Pan has the experience on his side in the 100m however, which could help him potentially nab a huge upset over the already legendary Popovici, who is still only a month younger than Pan.

Between the 100m and 200m freestyle, the 100m is where Pan has already proven himself at the highest level, while the 200m is still a little unclear. Speed play and endurance play a big part in the three rounds and although he has high medal chances in both, the 100m appears to be his best shot at a medal, despite not knowing what Australia, France, and the United States have on the table thus far. 

Zhang Yufei’s chances at a medal in Fukuoka? Likely. Best chance? 100m butterfly.

Olympic champion Zhang Yufei managed three bronze medals across all three butterfly disciplines last year, as the likes of Sarah Sjostrom, Torri Huske and Summer McIntosh sang their respective national anthems last year for the butterfly events. All three of them will be favourites this go-around in Fukuoka, if Huske is to solidify herself on the Worlds team for the United States.

However, Zhang will be looking to get back to the top after winning the 200m butterfly at the Tokyo Olympics in the fastest time since 2009. Zhang’s chances at gold appear to be highest in the 100m butterfly as she leads the world rankings for 2023 at 56.48 ahead of Canada’s Maggie Mac Neil (56.54). The world record of 55.48 from Sjostrom set in 2016 is on the table for the women’s 100m butterfly gold medalist, whoever that may be, with the top six from the 2020 Olympics still in the prime of their careers.

Last year’s World champ Huske has yet to make the Worlds team for the United States, with that selection coming at the end of June. The Olympic bronze medalist Emma McKeon has not made Australia’s Worlds team either, nor has France’s Marie Wattel, who beat Zhang to silver in Budapest last year. No one has gone under 56 yet this year, and if all of the players make their respective teams, there’s heavy indications from the parties involved that Sjostrom’s 55.48 is under threat, and Zhang certainly has the strength and speed to do so, swimming as fast as 55.62 at the last Olympics.

Although Zhang has an Olympic gold medal in the 200m butterfly, her 2:07.99 season best is well off the 2:06.32 that she swam to win bronze last year. Regan Smith of the United States is ranked number one in the world at the moment with a 2:03, some three seconds ahead of the rest of the world while Zhang sits tenth. However, Zhang has been as quick as 2:03 and perhaps she could get down to a 2:05 territory this summer in Fukuoka, which should be fast enough to win a medal.

And if Zhang can set the tone on day two with a 100m butterfly medal, it could spell good news for the rest of the Chinese national team.

Qin Haiyang’s chances for a medal in Fukuoka? High. Best chance? 100m breaststroke.

Another one of China’s breakout stars in 2023 has been Qin Haiyang, who is right now the top male breaststroker in the world. 100m world record holder Adam Peaty sat out the British Trials, leaving the two-lap event completely wide open. In May, Qin became the third man to break 58 seconds in the 100m breaststroke all-time, swimming at a scintillating pace that helped him swim faster than Nicolo Martinenghi’s gold medal-winning swim in Budapest (58.26). Three days later at Nationals, Qin swam to a 2:07.55 in the 200m breaststroke, which would have been good enough for a silver medal at last year’s Worlds.

Amongst the qualifiers for this year’s World Championships, Qin is the fastest man in both the 100m and 200m breaststroke thus far this season, with other gold medal favourites Zac Stubblety-Cook and Nic Fink yet to swim at their respective nationals. But Qin’s 57 in the 100m leaves him as the clear frontrunner at the moment, despite having limited success in the breaststroke venue. Qin has two medals from the World Short Course Championships in the 200m - a silver in his home nation in 2018 and a bronze this past December in Melbourne.

Qin, now 24, is a former world junior record holder in the 200m IM, placing sixth at the 2017 Worlds in Budapest, as he also swam a 1:57.68 this year, where he will have an outside shot at a medal in Fukuoka. Qin raced both the 200m IM and breaststroke in Budapest last year, but did not make it out of the heats in both events, leaving his medal chances for Fukuoka as a little bit of a wild card. He has experience racing in the Worlds final, but that was nearly six years ago now.

Qin is going to be a medal favourite in both the 100m and 200m breaststroke, it is just a matter of showing up on the day to follow up his impressive performances from the spring. Currently, the 100m breaststroke is the most wide open, with the 200m serving as a potential duel between world record holder Stubblety-Cook and former world record holder Ippei Watanabe of Japan. Qin will factor into the 200m breast medals if he is able to show up and win a medal in the 100m. If he is successful there, there is a high chance he will stand on the podium for the 200m breaststroke.

Wang Shun’s chances for a medal in Fukuoka? Likely. Best chance? 200m IM.

Olympic champion Wang Shun will be racing in his seventh World Championships, having made his debut at the Shanghai Worlds in 2011 in his home nation. Wang has been a staple on the Chinese national team, winning four medals in the 200m IM at the Olympics and the World Championships, including the coveted Olympic gold in 2020.

Wang again has the top time in the world currently in the 200m IM with his 1:55.55 from Nationals, which would have won silver last year in Budapest. After struggling to retain his form in 2022 in which he was 15th at last year’s Worlds, Wang is back in contention to win the gold medal back from reigning champion Leon Marchand of France, who is looking to gain some momentum heading into a home Olympics in 2024. Wang’s 1:55 this year makes this race all the more intriguing as he and Marchand haven’t seen eye to eye in the pool yet since Marchand’s recent rise to dominance.

Wang should also play a factor in China’s relays, having swam a 1:45.71 in the 200m freestyle as the Chinese have an outside shot for a medal in the 4x200m free relay. Wang will also race the 400m IM, having swum a 4:13.96 at Nationals. But the 200m IM is where Wang is the most dangerous, and although all eyes will be on Marchand and his pursuit of Ryan Lochte’s 2011 world record of 1:54.00, Wang, age 29, has experience racing in this spot on his side. Currently, nobody in the world has a faster best time than his 1:55.00 gold medal-winning time at the Olympics, if anyone could take down the current gold medal favourite Marchand, it could be Wang.

Xu Jiayu’s chances for a medal in Fukuoka? Likely. Best chance? 100m backstroke.

Another staple of the Chinese men’s team is Xu Jiayu, who at age 27 has represented China all the way back to the 2012 Olympics at age 16. Xu is currently the number one ranked man in the world in the 100m backstroke with his 52.26 relay lead-off from May. Xu is a two-time World champ in 2017 and 2019 in the 100m backstroke and was fifth in Tokyo in the Olympic final in 2020.

Last year’s Budapest final was the first major 100m back final without Xu since 2013 as he was tenth in the semifinal rounds. However, much like the aforementioned Wang Shun, Xu is back as a favourite for the 100m backstroke, as he is in line to become the second man to win the 100m backstroke World title three times after Aaron Peirsol won three straight from 2003 - 2007.

Last year’s 100m back final in Budapest was perhaps the fastest field ever assembled, with all three medalists swimming under 52 seconds with Thomas Ceccon snagging the world record at 51.60. Ceccon has not broken 53 yet this season, but definitely will not be counted out in Fukuoka. Xu looks to be the favourite in the 100m back, which would be some valuable momentum for a Chinese men’s team looking to get back onto the medal stand.

Ye Shiwen’s chances for a medal in Fukuoka? High. Best chance? 200m breaststroke.

Another of China’s longtime representatives has been Ye Shiwen, who famously won double gold in the IMs at the 2012 Olympics at just 16. Ye has rebranded herself as a breaststroke specialist in her 20s, while also remaining one of the top IM’ers in the world. In 2023, she qualified to swim the 200m IM and 200m breaststroke, where she is ranked highly in the world in the latter.

Ye’s 2:22.44 200m breaststroke this year puts her in contention for a medal in a wide open field as that is her lifetime best in the event at age 27. There doesn’t appear to be a clear-cut favorite for the gold medal in the women’s 200m breaststroke as five women have broken 2:23 in 2023. Last year, it took 2:22.41 to win the gold medal, and it’s expected that the gold medal time will be faster than 2:20 in 2023. Last year, Olympic champion Tatjana Schoenmaker sat out the World Championships while American Lilly King rebounded from a COVID sickness to win the gold medal. If everyone is healthy, the times are expected to be much quicker in that event, but no one amongst those qualified for Worlds has stepped up to get under 2:23.

Yu Yiting’s chances for a medal in Fukuoka? High. Best chance? 200m IM.

Ye is a former World champion in the 200m IM from 2011 and won two silvers in both IM finals at the 2019 Worlds. However, her 2:10 200 IM this year is not up to par with the likes of teammate Yu Yiting, who was a 2:08.34 at Nationals. That time by Yu was faster than the silver medal-winning time in Budapest as it is expected to take around 2:07 to make the podium this year. Last year Yu did not race in Budapest, so she may slip under the radar in the first two rounds to put herself in medal contention. At just 17, Yu has already won a silver at the World Short Course Championships in 2021 in the 200m IM, so she has the big final experience but has yet to replicate it in the long course.

Li Bingjie’s chances at a medal in Fukuoka? High. Best chance? 1500m freestyle.

One of the off-the-radar intriguing stories for 2023 will be the rise of Li Bingjie, who broke the 400m freestyle short course meters world record in late 2022 that was so fast that even the likes of Summer McIntosh and Katie Ledecky could not best it at the World Cup a few weeks later. Li scratched the World Short Course Championships in December due to illness, leaving fans to wonder what could have been.

With all the hype around the women’s 400m free field with the last two Olympic champions - Ledecky and Ariarne Titmus as well as new world record holder Summer McIntosh, Li has sort of been forgotten. She sits ninth all-time with her 4:01.08 from her bronze medal swim in Tokyo behind Titmus and Ledecky, and she could definitely join the sub-4:00 club that currently has four members. However, 3:59 is well off the 3:56 that those three aforementioned have swum already. But if Li can get under 4:00 and show she is on form, it could lead to medals in other races.

Li’s best chance for a medal in Fukuoka could come in the 1500m freestyle, where she swam a lifetime best of 15:51 this year. It took a 15:48 last year to make the podium in Fukuoka, with the United States and Australia taking the top four spots. Neither nation has selected its team yet for the World Championships, but Li currently has the number one time in the world amongst those already qualified, and if she can swim up to the 15:45 range, then she will certainly be in line for a medal. She has the mix of speed and endurance that will come in handy on that final on day three, about 48 hours after the 400m freestyle “race of the century.”

China’s two other highest medal possibilities come with 27-year-old Yan Zibei in the 100m breaststroke and 19-year-old Chen Juner in the 200m butterfly.

Yan swam a 58.79 in the 100m breaststroke this year, which was not far off the bronze medal time last year at 58.65. The field will be without world record holder and two-time defending Olympic champion Adam Peaty so there is no clear gold medal favourite as of right now. Yan won bronze in the 100m breast at the 2019 Worlds before he was sixth at the 2020 Olympics and fifth at last year’s Worlds. Yan has the experience over teammate and number one ranked swimmer Qin Haiyang so perhaps that could give him an edge over him to the podium, and potentially on either the mixed or the men’s medley relay, where China will also be a big medal favourite.

Yan Zibei’s medal chances for Fukuoka? High.

In the men’s 200m butterfly, Chen swam a 1:54.16 which was a little off the 1:53.61 bronze medal time from 2022. Chen was in Budapest last year, but did not advance past the semifinals by placing 21st with a 1:58. Chen doesn’t quite have the experience, but he has the speed as most of the men’s 200m butterfly players have raced in their respective trials. 1:54 is just a touch too slow to make the podium, as Kristof Milak is expected to push the 1:50 barrier while the rest of the world will try to catch him. Chen doesn’t quite have the experience of racing in big finals, but when the Chinese team is on, the momentum flows to the rest of the team.

Chen Juner’s medal chances for Fukuoka? High.

China’s best relay is perhaps the mixed medley as the quartet of Xu Jiayu, Yan Zibei, Zhang Yufei, and Yang Junxuan set a world record in 2020 and won the first ever Olympic silver in 2021. Even though the Chinese women won gold and bronze in the individual 200m freestyle last year, they left without a medal in the 4x200m freestyle relay. Their medal chances in that relay will certainly be high this year but the team doesn’t have a 1:53 split that the Americans or Australians possess.

The women’s medley relay was sixth last year but has the capability of getting a medal if Zhang and Cheng Yujie can swim up to their potential. Wang Xueer was a 58.99 in the 100m backstroke earlier this year but will need to be under 58 if the Chinese will take down either the reigning World champs the Americans or the reigning Olympic champs the Australians.

The men’s relay was eighth at Worlds last year but has the number one ranked backstroker, breaststroker, and freestyler at the moment. That could all change by July 1, but the team has the speed. If China can have Qin split 57 on the breaststroke and have Pan come home under 47, then the team will be tough to beat.

All that being said, China’s front half of its men’s relay combined with the back half of its women’s relay is perhaps its best permutation for the mixed relay, an event that requires a lot of strategy in its order. Currently, China’s weak length is freestyle on the women’s side, as anchoring with a woman appears to be the safest option with every major mixed medley relay gold medal-winning team since 2015 having anchored its team with a woman. But if the lead is big enough at 300 meters, it might not matter how weak the final leg is.