As the countdown to the World Aquatics Championships - Fukuoka 2023 continues, Swimming Canada has put together a strong contention of athletes to compete for medals in Japan come the end of the northern summer.
Swimming Canada has long been known as a swimming nation “on the rise” ever since 16-year-old Penny Oleksiak won four medals at the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio. There, a young nucleus of swimmers including Oleksiak, Taylor Ruck and Kylie Masse put the Canadians on the map as a force in world swimming. Flash forward nearly seven years later, and those three swimmers will be leading another strong, young team at the 2023 World Aquatics Championships in Fukuoka, Japan.
This time, the team is headlined by a different 16-year-old in Summer McIntosh, who astonishingly broke two world records at the World Championship Trials in Toronto in the 400m freestyle and 400m individual medley. Not only is she the first swimmer to break more than one long course world record in a single meet in four years, but she also becomes the first woman to break world records in both 400m distances. McIntosh has been a rising star since she finished fourth in the 400m freestyle at the 2021 Olympics as a 14-year-old, but now the target is on her back as she strives for a historic showing at this summer’s Worlds in Japan.
McIntosh is the defending world champion in both the 400m IM and the 200m butterfly, as she is currently the number one ranked swimmer in the world in both events in 2023, as well as the 200m and 400m freestyle, and the 200m IM. In fact, she swam faster than the gold medal-winning time at last year’s Worlds in all five of those events.
If she chooses to race all five events at Worlds, she could be in line to be the first to win five individual events at an international meet since Michael Phelps in 2008. In addition to her world records in the 400m distances, she also broke world junior records in the 200m freestyle, butterfly and IM.
As we stand right now in the lead-up to the World Championships, McIntosh is the heavy gold medal favourite in all five of those events as the anticipation begins towards perhaps the hottest event all year - the 400m freestyle final between McIntosh and the last two Olympic champions in Ariarne Titmus and Katie Ledecky. Last year, Ledecky got the better of McIntosh at the World Championships in Budapest in the 400m freestyle, which Titmus elected to sit out to prepare for the Commonwealth Games. At the Commonwealth Games a month later, Titmus raced the Canadian and came away from the race with the gold medal. Both Titmus and Ledecky have head-to-head wins over her, but McIntosh now has the world record, so if all three swimmers line up behind the blocks for the final come July 23, it will attract the eyes of the world.
McIntosh, coached by Brent Arckey in Sarasota, Florida, has been on a tear in 2023 in her first year training in the United States, and right now it doesn’t appear anyone can take her down in the 200m freestyle, 200m butterfly or the 400m IM. There is still plenty of time for new contenders to arise but McIntosh has early on usurped herself as the best swimmer in the entire world.
McIntosh’s chances for a medal: Likely. Best chance for a medal: 400m IM.
Elsewhere, Canada’s best medal chances come from two other American-trained swimmers in Maggie Mac Neil and Joshua Liendo. Last year, Mac Neil competed only in relays at the World Championships in Budapest, while Liendo broke out as a sprint force internationally.
In 2023, a refreshed Mac Neil is ready to take back her World Championships gold medal she won in 2019 as she currently has the top time in the world in the 100m butterfly with a 56.54. Although that time was slower than Zhang Yufei’s 56.41 bronze medal winning time last year, Mac Neil is a gamer and will show up to race day on July 24 ready to take on the entire world. Her best time from when she won the 2021 Olympic gold makes her the second-fastest performer all-time. After a successful final NCAA Championships competing for Louisiana State University and coach Rick Bishop, Mac Neil got the job done in qualifying for Fukuoka, getting under the qualifying standard in the 100m butterfly and the 50m freestyle (24.79).
The 100m butterfly will stand as Mac Neil’s best chance to make a podium at the World Championships, given that she is the reigning Olympic champion in the event. Mac Neil was a part of one of the fastest 100 butterfly fields ever assembled at the NCAA Championships in March where she swam the second fastest short course yards time ever behind American Kate Douglass. In the 50y freestyle at the NCAAs, she won the final in the fastest time ever (20.79) so she has the speed to contend internationally in the event - it is just transferring that speed to the long course pool without the benefit of the turn. Mac Neil hasn’t had the success in the sprint freestyle events as she has had in butterfly at international events, but that could change in 2023 as the international sprint landscape transitions into a new era.
Mac Neil’s chances for a medal: Likely. Best chance: 100m butterfly.
On the men’s side, Liendo had a very good World Trials where he won his three main events - the 50m freestyle (21.89), the 100m freestyle (47.86), and the 100m butterfly (50.36). In Budapest last year, Liendo won bronze medals in both the 100m freestyle (47.71) and butterfly (50.97) as he reached his first ever individual podium at an international meet last year. Liendo springboarded into 2023 by becoming the second fastest performer ever in the 100y freestyle at the NCAA Championships a week prior to World Trials. Liendo is in his first season with the University of Florida and coach Anthony Nesty, who also coaches Olympic champions Katie Ledecky and Bobby Finke, along with sprinting legend and Olympic champion Caeleb Dressel.
Liendo’s best chance for a medal comes in the 100m butterfly, where his 50.36 in Toronto is faster than the silver medal-winning time from last year. Although Dressel wasn’t in that final last year, the time by Liendo is still impressive, and will certainly not be taken lightly in the lead-up to Fukuoka.
That 100m butterfly final also falls on the same night as the 50m freestyle, where the Canadian was fifth last year. Perhaps with more knowledge of the situation, Liendo can prepare himself to swim all three rounds in both events well enough to land a spot on the podium twice in one night, and then finish with a spot on Canada’s 4x100m mixed freestyle relay team, where a silver medal was earned last year for the team.
Liendo also gave David Popovici a run for his money in the 100m freestyle final in Budapest as his 47.86 this past week was not quite as fast as his 47.71 from last year, but good enough to secure himself as an early medal favourite ahead of the Worlds this time around.
Liendo’s chances for a medal: Likely. Best chance? 100m butterfly.
The Canadian Trials also saw the emergence of teenager Ilya Kharun, who was second to Liendo in the 100m butterfly (51.45) and the champion in the 200m butterfly (1:54.74). Kharun went faster at the TYR Pro Swim Series in Fort Lauderdale in early March (1:54.49) in that 200m butterfly just a month removed from his 18th birthday. 1:53 made the podium at the World Championships last year, and if Kharun is in for another big drop, then he could make his way up there against the big dogs in the 200m butterfly.
Kharun comes from the same training pool as World Championships silver medalist Katie Grimes as he is yet another name in the long line of really good swimmers to come out of the Sandpipers of Nevada and coach Ron Aitken.
Kharun lacks the experience of racing in a tense environment next to the likes of world record holder Kristof Milak and rising superstar Leon Marchand. However, Kharun has proven he can swim fast - it’s just a matter of doing it when the lights are bright. With Kharun, Canada has a 1-2 punch in the men’s 100m butterfly - a first for the Canadian men in a number of years. Liendo, 20, and Kharun, 18, aren’t going anywhere but up it appears either. With this summer serving as the launching pad for many careers, this could spell good news for the Canadian men, who have been looking for a star since the retirement of distance swimmer Ryan Cochrane in 2016. When Liendo won his bronze medals last summer, he was the first Canadian man to win a medal internationally since Cochrane in 2015.
Kharun’s chances for a medal: Moderate. Best chance? 200m butterfly.
With new contenders Kharun and Liendo lurking, Kylie Masse remains as a medal threat in the women’s backstroke races. Last year, Masse won gold in the 50m and silver in the 100m backstroke, and also has stood on every major podium for the 100m backstroke since winning bronze in the 2016 Olympics. It is hard to envision a 100m backstroke podium without Masse, and now at age 27, she is still one of the favourites to be standing up there on the third night of competition.
However, Masse did not win the 100m backstroke at the Trials, as 24-year-old Ingrid Wilm got the touch (58.80) over Masse (59.00). Last year was Wilm’s first appearance in a major long course Worlds where she was fourth in the 50m backstroke. Wilm has blossomed late in her career, most recently winning her first individual medal internationally at the Short Course Worlds in December in the 100m backstroke. Wilm’s swim in Toronto last week moved her up to 25th all-time in the 100m backstroke as her previous best was a 59.47 from July 2022.
Masse has been under 58 in the 100m backstroke and clearly has the speed to still compete for a gold medal. Every conversation surrounding the women’s 100m backstroke includes Masse, it just may be harder with the emergence of Wilm.
Wilm also qualified to race the 200m backstroke alongside Masse, who won the national title at 2:07.13 ahead of Wilm at 2:10.19, but Wilm’s best chance at getting on the podium appears to be in both the 50m and 100m backstroke.
Masse’s chances for a podium: Likely. Best chance: 100m backstroke.
Wilm’s chances for a podium: Likely. Best chance: 50m backstroke.
Canada won a total of 11 medals in the pool last year in Budapest, and certainly has the possibility of exceeding that total in Fukuoka. The stars of McIntosh, Liendo, and Mac Neil are bound to do something special, which in turn could inspire the rest of the team to step up to the occasion. Two swimmers that seemed very invigorated at the Trials were medley specialists Sydney Pickrem and Finlay Knox.
Pickrem’s swim in the 200m IM (2:08.61) matched her fastest time in three years, as she took second to McIntosh, who had a super-human swim. That swim was also faster than the bronze medal-winning time last year. Pickrem has won four medals in her career at the World Championships, and after not meeting the same performance heights at the Tokyo Olympics, perhaps 2023 is a redemption year for her to get back to the podium to get some momentum ahead of the 2024 Olympics. Pickrem also finished second in the 400m IM (4:39.81) and won the 200m breaststroke (2:24.63).
Pickrem’s chances for a podium: Likely. Best chance: 200m IM.
Knox also swam his lifetime best in the 200m IM at 1:57.26, and at age 22 is coming off a strong showing at the World Short Course Championships in December where he won two bronzes in the 100m and 200m IM races. It will take much faster to get a medal in the 200m IM, but this has to be a confidence booster for Knox, who was only 17th in Budapest last year.
Knox’s chances for a podium: Moderate. Best chance: 200m IM.
Canada also won four medals in relays last year, including all three women’s events. Despite not competing at the World Trials, both Penny Oleksiak and Taylor Ruck will represent Canada at the World Championships, which would give the team a boost on relays. Any relay with Summer McIntosh on it is going to be a medal contender, and having either Masse or Wilm lead off the medley relay with Mac Neil on the butterfly leg is going to be tough to beat.
It seems however the team is missing a strong fourth leg to compete for a gold medal in all three women’s relays. Canada did not have a breaststroker get under the A-cut in the 100m, while Kayla Sanchez’s nationality switch to the Philippines hurts the freestyle relays. But the team still has Mary-Sophie Harvey as the fourth option for the 4x200m along with McIntosh, Ruck, and Oleksiak, as well as the potential to use someone like Ella Jansen or Katerine Savard on her sixth Worlds team.
The 4x100m freestyle team won silver last year, and could replace Sanchez with McIntosh, who has the capability to swim under 54 seconds.